Dec 31, 2008 Reports

00:30 Australia - Private Sector Credit (Nov)
13:30 US - Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims
15:35 US - EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
19:00 Europe - ECB Trichet's Speech

Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (Nov)

Its about 3 more minutes before it is released. The result might increase the volatility of USD. 15 minutes after that, US will release the Consumer Confidence (Dec)

EUR/USD

Such a volatile night of EUR/USD. Before I sleep, my position still at about +200 pips. But, when I wake up its already about -200 pips, and now recovered to around -50 pips. I'm trying to trade it in longer period instead of day trading. But, market volatility shown that it might still be better to do day trading to take out profit from the table.

Let's see how it goes, usually sharp drop will be followed with sharp rebound and vice versa..

Dec 30, 2008 reports

UK - Nationwide Housing Prices (Dec)
09:00 Europe - M3 (Nov)
14:00 US - S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (Oct)
15:00 US - Consumer Confidence (Dec)

There are not much important reports this week. But, it doesn't means there will be no volatility for Forex market. Usually it will make a big move slowly during this kind of period.

EUR/USD update

1.4125 resistance has broken this morning and this pair keep moving up. I set current sell queue at 1.4450

Dec 29, 2008 Reports

UK - Nationwide Housing Prices (Dec)
Germany - CPI (Dec)
08:55 Germany - Unemployment Change (Dec)
09:30 UK - Housing Equity Withdrawal (3Q)
14:45 US - Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Nov)

Holiday mood

I will start posting again from tomorrow onwards until New Year eve. As during holiday such as Christmas/New Year, the forex market is closed and during the eve and the day after that it only trade for half day so that there might be less volatility for most of the currencies.

As for my EUR/USD position, I still leave it open expecting it to break up the 1.4125 resistance. Enjoy your weekend :)

December 25, 2008 Reports

23:30 Japan - Jobless Rate (Nov), National CPI (Nov), Tokyo CPI (Dec)
23:50 Japan - Retail Trade (Nov)

Merry Christmas 2008

Merry Christmas everyone, enjoy your day.. :)

Dec 24, 2008

Important and Critical reports (1 day before Christmas 2008):
13:30 US - Continuing Jobless Claims, Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (Nov), Durable Goods Orders (Nov), Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income (Nov), Personal Spending (Nov)
13:30 Canada - GDP (Oct)
23:50 Japan - BoJ Minutes, Corporate Service Price (Nov)

Dec 23, 2008

09:00 Europe - Current Account (Oct)
09:30 UK - Current Account (3Q), GDP (3Q), Index of Services (Oct)
13:30 US - GDP (3Q), Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index (3Q), Personal Consumption (3Q)
15:00 US - Existing Home Sales (Nov), Housing Price Index (Nov), New Home Sales (Nov), Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec)
23:50 Japan - Merchandise Trade Balance (Nov)

Euro update

Worse than expected Industrial New Orders for Europe cause the Euro slide further against USD and some other currencies.

EUR/USD - 22 December 2008

I long this pair at 1.4100
Expecting further rebound after friday drop.

Dec 21 and 22, 2008 Reports/Events

Dec 21, 2008 GMT Time:
21:45 New Zealand - Current Account (3Q)

Dec 22, 2008 GMT Time:
00:30 Australia - New Motor Vehicle Sales (Nov)
05:00 Japan - Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey, BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
07:00 Germany - Gfk Consumer confidence Survey (Dec), Import Price Index (Nov)
21:45 New Zealand - Gross Domestic Product (3Q)
23:00 Australia - Conference Board Australia Leading Index (Oct)

Currency pair update

EUR/USD ended at 1.3922 (-2.59%)
NZD/USD ended at 0.5751 (-1.86%)
AUD/USD ended at 0.6823 (-1.44%)
GBP/USD ended at 1.4920 (-0.88%)

Most of the currencies were drop against USD

EUR/USD

It seems this pair might pulled back further down, but I will be busy later on and will not be in front of my PC at night. So that, I decided just to take this loss at this time..

EUR/USD position closed

Decided to close my position to prevent further risk.. =.=

Sell: 1.4111
Buy: 1.4300
Realized Profit: -189 pips (loss 189 pips)

This is totally wrong move as I didn't set the cut loss 2 days ago because of my big mistake that I feel too confident about it and then I just away from my PC for about 1 hour. It ended jumped up about 200+ pips when I came back that quite shocked me that time. Learned my lesson. I feel quite lucky that this pair managed to pull back strongly yesterday and today..

EUR/USD December 19, 2008

Buy back queue changed to 1.4100

EUR/USD turning back

I feel very relieved when finally saw this pair start to turn back.. Still waiting the correct time to cut my loss..

Dec 19, 2008 Reports and Events

UK - Gfk Consumer Confidence (Dec)
02:00 New Zealand - Credit Card Spending (Nov)
Japan - BoJ Interest Rate Decision, BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
07:00 Germany - Producer Price Index (Nov)
09:30 UK - Total Business Investment (3Q)
12:00 Canada - Consumer Price Index (Nov)

EUR/USD update

I feel very regret that yesterday didn't really monitor it and also didn't see cut loss target because I felt very confident. Its such a big mistake and I have learn my lesson. Today I thought there will be a strong pullback, but indeed it went up further.. I will try to find the correct time to reduce my losses.. :(

EUR/USD update

I was away thought my target could be reached when I saw it already dropped to 1.4050. I was quite surprised when came back and notice that it has bounced up to 1.4300+ which is too late for cut loss. I will monitor it carefully before make the decision since its too late to cut loss now.

December 18, 2008 Reports

07:15 Switzerland - Trade Balance
08:15 Switzerland - Adjusted Real Retail Sales (OCt)
09:00 Germany - IFO Business Climate and Expectations (Dec)
09:30 UK - M4 Money Supply (Nov), M4 Sterling Lending (Nov), Retail Sales (Nov)
10:00 Europe - Construction Output (Oct) and Trade Balance (Oct)
13:30 US - Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims (Dec)
13:30 Canada - Foreign Investment in Canadian Securities (Oct), Leading Indicators (Nov) and Retail Sales (Oct)
15:00 US - Leading Indicators (Nov), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Dec)
23:50 Japan - All Industry Activity Index (Oct)

EUR/USD buy queue

I just set the buy back queue at 1.4000

EUR/USD - 17 December 2008

I just shorted this pair at 1.4111

FED Interest Rate Decision

FED Interest Rate Decision is set at 0.25% (cut 75 basis points) compare to estimated 0.50% (50 basis points). Previosly the rate was at 1.00% USD dropped against most of the currencies.

NZD/USD Position Closed

Cancel my sell queue and sell it at 0.5654

Buy: 0.5580
Sell: 0.5654
Realized Profit: 74 pips

It is still possible for this pair to going up further, but I decide to close my open position. Reasons:
- FED meeting might cause a very high volatility
- To enjoy my sleeping time (Reduce the risk)

Dollar Sinks Vs Yen and Euro After US Economic Data

The dollar is sinking against the yen and euro after the release of worse than feared U.S. consumer prices and home construction which took its biggest tumble in 24 years during November. Ahead of the FED meeting in the afternoon, these data support calls that the FOMC may cut rates more than the consensus forecast.

NZD/USD - 16 December 2008 sell queue

I set sell queue at 0.5690

Dec 17, 2008 Reports and Events

05:00 Japan - Leading Economic Index (Oct)
07:00 Germany - Consumer Price Index (Nov)
09:30 UK - Average Earnings - Including and Excluding Bonus (Oct), BoE Minutes, Claimant Count Rate, ILO Unemployment Rate (Oct), Jobless Claom Change (Nov)
10:00 Europe - Consumer Price Index (Nov)
12:00 US - MBA Mortgage Applications
13:30 US - Current Account (3Q)
13:30 Canada - Wholesale Sales (Oct)
15:35 US - EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

NZD/USD - 16 December 2008

I just opened new long position for NZD/USD at 0.5580

NZD/USD - Cut Loss my Position

I just buy back this pair at 0.5580 (Cut Loss) :(

Sell: 0.5524
Buy: 0.5580
Realized Profit: -56 pips (loss 56 pips)

NZD/USD - 15 December 2008 Buy queue

I queued to buy back at 0.5480

Dec 16, 2008 Important Reports and Events

00:30 Australia - RBA Meeting's Minutes (Dec)
08:30 Germany - Purchasing Manager Index (Dec)
09:00 Europe - Purchasing Manager Index (Dec)
09:30 UK - Consumer Price Index (Nov), Core Consumer Price Index (Nov), Retail Price Index (Nov)
UK - BoE Inflation Letter
11:00 Europe - Employment Change (3Q)
13:30 US - Building Permits (Nov), Consumer Price Index (Nov), Housing Starts (Nov)
13:30 Canada - Manufacturing Shipments (Oct)
19:15 US - Fed Interest Rate Decision
22:00 US - ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence
23:30 Australia - Westpac Leading Index (Oct)

With so many events and reports tomorrow, we can expect a very high volatility for all the currencies especially the major currencies. Be careful with your trade. If you are unsure with your trade, it will be wise to stay aside. But, if you are willing to face high risk and confident with your decision, this will be the time to get high return. Good Luck.

NZD/USD - 15 December 2008

I just shorted this pair at 0.5524

Dec 15 Reports and Events

Dec 15 GMT Time Reports:
00:01 UK - Rightmove House Price Index (Dec)
04:00 Japan - Tokyo Condominium Sales (Nov)
08:15 Switzerland - Producer and Import Prices (Nov)
13:30 US - NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)
14:00 US - Net Long-term TIC Flows (OCt), Total Net TIC Flows (Oct)
14:15 US - Capacity Utilization (Nov), Industrial Production (Nov)
17:30 Europe - ECB Trichet's Speech (Nov)
18:00 US - NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec)
23:50 Japan - Tertiary Industry Index (Oct)

Dec 14 Reports and Events

Dec 14 GMT Time Reports:
23:50 Japan (4Q) - Tankan Large All Industry Capex, Tankan Large Manufacturing Index and Outlook, Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index and Outlook

Stocks rally on bailout hopes

Wall Street gains at end of choppy session on bets that the automakers will get help after all.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rose Friday, ending a choppy session higher, as investors welcomed the Treasury Department's indication it might step in and bail out the troubled automakers after a $14 billion bill collapsed in the Senate.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 0.8%. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index climbed 0.7% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 2.2%.

For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 ended with modest losses and the Nasdaq posted a slim gain.

Stocks slumped Thursday on fears that the $14 billion auto rescue bill would lose traction in the Senate. Those concerns proved correct. Negotiations fell apart Thursday night, with Democrats, Republicans, the individual companies and the United Auto Workers union unable to reach a compromise.

But on Friday, the White House said it would consider using some of the money set aside to help banks and Wall Street for bailing out the auto industry. The Bush administration said it could access the $700 billion bailout already approved by Congress, known as the Troubled Asset Recovery Program or TARP.

For more details you can get from the following link

Source: CnnMoney.com

AUD/USD Position Closed

I just sell this pair at 0.6600

Buy: 0.6550
Sell: 0.6600
Realized Profit: 50 pips

AUD/USD

I just buy AUD/USD at 0.6550

USD/JPY touch a new low

USD/JPY current rate at 90.10
Be careful for whatever open trading positions that you have now.

AUD/USD position closed

Sell: 0.6690
Buy: 0.6650
Realized Profit: 40 pips

AUD/USD

I just set buy back queue at 0.6650

Be Prepared! U.S. PPI Today at 13:30 GMT

U.S. PPI is expected to be released today, December 12th, at 13:30 GMT, and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. PPI please read below.

What is the U.S. PPI?

The PPI, or Producer Price Index, is the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. The PPI is one of the measures used by the Federal Reserve to measure inflation. This is the primary indicator of inflationary growth. A figure higher than the previous month's release indicates growing inflation; meaning the price for domestically produced goods has increased. A negative number is the opposite: a decrease in the price of domestically produced goods and services signifying that growth has declined.

This report is issued monthly, usually 15 days after the end of the month. The PPI is important to traders because it's an indicator of consumer purchasing power and therefore signifies the strength of the national currency. When producers charge more for goods and services, the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. When the national currency has gained in value and is capable of purchasing more, inflation is said to have slowed, and in some instances there is the rare occurrence of price deflation, which may actually be taking place in the United States right now.

If the Report Comes In-Line with Market Forecasts

Currently, the U.S. Producer Price Index is forecast to signify that producer prices have grown slightly. If this report is indeed released in-line with market forecasts it will signify that the price of domestically produced goods and services in the United States has increased. With a release of this nature, traders may witness the USD gain strength against the EUR and test the 1.2900 price level once again since it will signify that the U.S. economy is experiencing some growth.

If the Report Surprises with a Contradiction to Market Forecasts

As of now, the U.S. Produce Price Index is predicted to indicate that the price for U.S. produced goods and services has increased. If, however, this report indicates that the percentage month-on-month inflation rate is more negative than forecasted the result will likely convince investors that the U.S. economy is not in as good a shape as previously thought. As the USD has been bearish in recent days, a release of this kind may actually force the Dollar into a deeper bearish trend, testing the 1.3400 level against the EUR in the short-term.

Source: Forexyard

Today's Economic Reports/Events - 12 December 2008

GMT Time:
04:30 Japan - Capacity Utilization (Oct), Industrial Production (Oct)
05:00 Japan - Consumer Confidence (Nov)
10:00 Europe - Industrial Production (Oct)
13:30 Canada - New Motor Vehicle Sales (Oct)
13:30 US - Producer Price Index (Nov), Retail Sales (Nov)
15:00 US - Business Inventories (Oct), Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec)

AUD/USD

I just shorted it at 0.6690 with expectation that this pair unable to break up at this moment..

USD/CHF Position closed

Order Queue done in 9 minutes :)

Sell: 1.1920
Buy: 1.1900
Realized Profit: 20 pips

USD/CHF

I just short it at 1.1920
Queued to buy at 1.1900 for fast profit

Important Event to take note

Next week 16 December 2008 at 18:15 GMT Time - FED Interest Rate Decision

Be Prepared! U.S. Trade Balance Today at 13:30 GMT

Forexyard Indicator Report

U.S. Trade Balance is expected to be released tomorrow, December 11th, at 13:30 GMT, and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Trade Balance please read below.

What is the U.S. Trade Balance?

The U.S. Trade Balance is the difference between the amount of goods and services exported versus the amount imported into and out of the United States. A positive number in this report indicates that there is a trade surplus, meaning the U.S. has exported more than it has imported. A negative number is the opposite: a trade deficit, also called a trade gap. A trade deficit results from importing more than the country exports.

This report is issued monthly, usually 40 days after the end of the month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers. As such, if export demand grows, even marginally, it will indicate that the USD will gain some small momentum to its recent bullish strength. If, however, the trade deficit continues to worsen, the USD could potentially see a reversal.

If the Report Comes In-Line with Market Forecasts

Currently the U.S. Trade Balance, while a negative number historically, is forecast to increase from -56.5B to -53.5B. If this report is indeed released in-line with market forecasts, then it will signify that demand for U.S. exports has increased slightly. Since U.S. goods and services must be bought with USD, the value of the Dollar will have inherently increased as well as a result of this indicator. Likewise, if this indicator is in fact released as an even higher number than forecast, the bullish run in the USD may continue to gain momentum. With a release of this nature, traders may witness the USD resume its previous bullish run and probably test the 1.2500 price level against the EUR once more.

If the Report Surprises with a Contradiction to Market Forecasts

As of now, the U.S. Trade Balance is predicted to indicate that demand for U.S. goods and services has increased and the deficit has shrunk slightly. If, however, this report indicates that this demand has in fact increased less than forecasted, or even decreased, the result will likely convince investors that the U.S. economy is not in as good a shape as previously thought. As the USD has been flat in recent days, a release of this kind may actually force the Dollar into a deeper bearish correction, testing the 1.3200 level against the EUR in the short-term.

Source: Forexyard

AUD/USD Buy queue done

I woke up this morning and noticed that my buy queue is done.

Sell: 0.6570
Buy: 0.6530
Realized Profit: 40 pips

AUD/USD Buy Queue

I just queued to buy back at 0.6530

11 December 2008 Economic Reports

Tomorrow Events and Reports (GMT Time):
00:00 Australia - Consumer Inflation Expectation (Dec)
00:30 Australia - Employment Change (Nov), Unemployment Rate (Nov)
08:05 Europe - ECB Trichet's Speech (Nov)
08:30 Switzerland - SNB Interest Rate Decision
09:00 Europe - ECB Monthly Report (Dec)
09:30 UK - Inflation Expectations
13:30 US - Import Price Index (Nov)
13:30 US - Initial Jobless Claims (Dec)
13:30 Canada - International Merchandise Trade (Oct), New Housing Price Index
13:30 US - Trade Balance (Oct)
21:45 New Zealand - Retail Sales (Oct)

With so many important reports/events to be released, we can expect another high volatility for most of currencies pair tomorrow. Good Luck.

AUD/USD

I just shorted this pair at 0.6570 as tomorrow there will be Employment Change and Unemployment Rate to be released. Cut loss target if it break above 0.6680 strongly and manage to hold above it.

NZD/USD Closed

I just close my NZD/USD long position at 0.5430 as I feel that the 4 hour chart doesn't looks good. It is still possible for this pair to going up further, but I just have some doubt on it and would like to refresh my position.

Buy: 0.5366
Sell: 0.5430
Realized Profit: 64 pips

Dow Jones drop 242 points

Dow Jones Index was recovering back to previous day value after US Pending Home Sales is released. But DJ unable to hold the recovery and ended close at 8691.33 or drop 242.85 points (-2.72%)

Dec 10, 2008 Reports

Today's Reports:
00:01 UK - NIESR GDP Estimate (Nov)
12:00 US - MBA Mortgage Applications
15:00 US - Wholesale Inventories (Oct)
15:35 US - EIA Crude Oil Storks change
19:00 US - Monthly Budget Statement
21:30 New Zealand - Food Price Index (Nov)

US Pending Home Sales (Oct)

The result is -0.7% which is better than estimated -3.0%. Previously it was -4.6%. Dow Jones Index currently drop 107 points (-1.2%).

Economic update

Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision set to 1.5% from 2.25% which is lower from estimated 1.75%.

Another half an hour before the US Pending Home Sales for Oct be released. Such a volatile movement today for NZD/USD pair. I haven't take any profit yet since it didn't meet my sell price queue, and I was quite busy today to monitor the movement of it. Let's see how it goes after the US Pending Home Sales Report is announced.

9 December 2008

Some important reports on 9 December 2008 GMT Time:
00:01 UK - BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov), NIESR GDP Estimate (Nov), RICS House Price Balance (Nov)
06:45 Switzerland - Unemployment Rate (Nov)
07:00 Germany - Trade Balance (Oct)
09:30 UK - DCLG House Price Index, Gross Trade Balance (Oct), Industrial Production (MoM) - Nov, Industrial Production (YoY) - Oct, Total Trade Balance (Nov)
10:00 Germany - ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Dec)
14:00 Canada - BoC Interest Rate Decision
15:00 US - Pending Home Sales (Oct)
23:30 Australia - Westpac Customer Confidence (Dec)

NZD/USD - 8 December 2008 update 2

I just queued my sell position for NZD/USD at 0.5526
Let's see how it goes :)

NZD/USD - 8 December 2008 update

Break up done nicely with current rate 0.5453. I haven't close my position yet as I still observing and waiting for the correct resistance. Current unrealized profit: 87 pips.

NZD/USD - 8 December 2008

I just open long position NZD/USD at 0.5366 (expecting break up)

Dec 8, 2008 Reports and Events

Tomorrow Important Reports/Events (Dec 8 GMT Time):
09:30 UK - Producer Price Index - Input and Output (Nov)
11:00 Germany - Industrial Production (Oct)
13:00 Europe - ECB Trichet's Speech
13:15 Canada - Housing Starts (Nov)
23:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product (3Q)

With the speech of ECB Trichet, we can expect high volatility for Euro and major currencies.

NZD/USD - 5 December 2008

I managed to get a quick profit (5-10 minutes time) of 25 pips from NZD/USD last night by short it at 0.5240 and buy back 0.5215 during the volatility.

Sell: 0.5240
Buy: 0.5215
Profit: 25 pips

Stocks rally despite jobs report

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks staged a big comeback Friday, erasing big losses after a brutal November employment report, as investors extended the recent trend of buying despite the bad news.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 260 points or 3.1%. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index added 3.7% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 4.4%.

more details from the following link:
Source: http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/05/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

Be Prepared! US Non-Farm Employment Change at 13:30 GMT

U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change figures are expected on Friday, December 5th, 13:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, please read below.

What is Non-Farm Employment Change?

The U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as "Non-Farm Payrolls" (NFP) and the "Employment Report," is a monthly economic indicator used to measure the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry.

Each month the Current Employment Statistics Program surveys about 150,000 businesses, representing approximately 390,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, work-hours, and earnings of workers on non-farm payrolls for all 50 U.S. states. The survey is then published on the first Friday of each month.

The NFP is an important leading indicator that also affects consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. Traders value the indicator with the highest importance as its early monthly release can set the tone for the rest of the month's market movement. Investors should also note Wednesday's 13:15 (GMT) release of Automatic Data Processing Inc.'s (ADP's) estimate of Non-Farm Employment Change. In the past, ADP has provided an accurate assessment of what was to come from the actual NFP release two days later. With the volatility of world economies in recent months, however, ADP has not been able to correctly estimate the Non-Farm Payroll outcome, only strengthening the real power behind Friday's news release.

If the Survey Comes Inline With Market Forecasts
Expectations for this month reveal that the Non-Farm Employment Change figures are forecasted to drop to -320K from last month's -240K. Such a result, should it take place, will be the lowest drop in employment numbers that the U.S. economy has experienced since April of this year. The recent economic struggle, which is being fought vehemently by the U.S. government, has created doubt in the market for the USD, which is driving its value lower. Considering that this survey has delivered negative figures for several consecutive months now, another sharp drop could signal a reversal to the USD's bullishness. This would mean the USD could be facing a very unfortunate weekend, causing the EUR/USD pair to rise back toward the 1.3000 level again.

If the Survey Will Surprise With Bullishness
If the actual figure is higher than forecasted, -230K for example, traders are likely to see a continuation of the USD's bullishness. Currently, investors are setting their positions on the USD based on the assumption that by the end of the week the USD could face a reversal to its bullish momentum. However, in case the survey delivers better figures than expected, investors might be compelled to reevaluate their strategies and go long on the USD. In this turn of events, the USD may receive an extra boost to its bullish strength, and the EUR/USD could drop toward levels of 1.2200.

Source: Forexyard

Today's Reports

Dec 5 GMT Time:
11:00 Germany - Factory Orders (Oct)
12:00 Canada - Net Change in Employment (Nov), Unemployment Rate
13:30 US - Average Hourly Earnings (Nov), Average Weekly Hours (Nov), Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov), Unemployment Rate (Nov)
20:00 US - Consumer Credit (Oct)

Fed Bernanke's Speech

Fed Bernanke's Speech cause a very high volatility for USD and most of currency pair.

USD/CHF

Finally, managed to close my position at 1.2010, earning 90 pips.. :)

ECB Set Interest Rate to 2.5%

ECB Reduce its interest rate to 2.5% which is lower than estimated (2.75%). Previous interest rate was 3.25%.

BoE Set Interest Rate to 2%

BoE set the interest rate to 2% as expectation from previously which was 3%.

BoE and ECB Interest Rate Decision

Another big event tomorrow, as BoE and ECB will decide the interest rate. Major currencies might expecting high volatility. At GMT Time:
00:30 Australia - Trade Balance (Oct)
10:00 Europe - Gross Domestic Product (3Q)
12:00 UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision
10:00 Europe - ECB Interest Rate Decision
13:30 US - Initial Jobless Claims
15:00 US - Factory Orders (Oct)
15:00 Canada - Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Nov)

USD/CHF

I just open Short position USD/CHF 1.21

Profit Target: Will decide during volatility period later on
Cut Loss Target: If stay above 1.2175

Advice of the day: Cut loss target

Remember to set and follow your cut loss target, because today US Reports might create a very high volatility. If you are in the right wave direction is good, but if you are in the wrong direction, you must follow your cut loss target properly to avoid heavy loss.

3 Dec 2008 report

Tomorrow important reports:
00:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Nov)
00:30 Australia GDP (3Q)
10:00 Europe Retail Sales (Oct)
10:30 BRC Shop Index (Nov)
13:15 US ADP Employment Change (Nov)
13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (3Q), Unit Labor Cost (3Q)
15:00 US ISM Non Manufacturing (Nov)
15:35 US EIA Crude Oil Stock Change (Nov)
19:00 US Fed's Beige Book
20:00 New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

High volatility for USD, major currencies and New Zealand is expected. Fed's Beige Book might give an outlook for future rate decision.

Treasury Secretary Paulson Speech

At GMT Time 16:30, there will be Treasury Secretary Paulson Speech. Expected high volatility for major currency.

2 December 2008 Events

Today events GMT Time:
00:30 Australia - Current Account Balance (3Q), Retail Sales (Oct)
03:30 Australia - RBA Interest Rate Decision
04:00 Japan - BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
N/A Japan - BoJ Interest Rate Decision
06:30 Japan - BoJ Press Conference
10:00 Europe - Producer Price Index (Oct)
22:00 US - Washington Post Consumer Confidence (Nov 30)

We can expect a very high volatility for AUD, JPY and Major Currencies today. Japan decision on interest rate might decide the movement of the stock market as well.

Will it be the time for USD to rebound strongly against JPY?

Dow plunges 680 points

Stocks slump as U.S. recession is officially called and signs point to a prolonged slowdown.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 680 points, its fourth-biggest single-session decline on a point basis ever. The decline was 7.7% in percentage terms - the 12th worst percentage one-day decline ever.

Year-to-date, the Dow is down 38.6% and has lost 42.5% from its record close of 14164.53 hit on Oct. 9, 2007.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index fell 8.9% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gave up 9%.

Source: CNNMoney
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2008120118

EUR/GBP 1-2 Dec 2008

This pair did a very strong rebound yesterday that it bounce up from 0.824 to 0.852-0.853 range before pulling back to current level which is 0.847.

Current Resistance: 0.8515-0.8525, 0.857-0.858
Current Support: 0.843-0.844, 0.837-0.839

EUR/GBP rebound

EUR/GBP managed to rebound strongly from 0.824 to current level 0.832 (1st resistance) after a sharp drop on friday. If managed to break up, the next resistance will be around 0.835-0.836, follow by 0.838-0.839 and then 0.843-0.844. Current support at 0.824-0.825

Important report tonight

Dec 1 GMT Time:
08:55 Germany - Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (Nov)
09:30 United Kingdom - Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (Nov)
13:30 Canada - Gross Domestic Product (October)
15:00 United States - ISM Manufacturing (Oct)
18:30 United States - Fed's Bernanke Speech

EUR/GBP

Support level was broken. This pair is free fall to 0.825, and currently holding around 0.826-0.827 range. Let's see whether it will drop further..

EUR/GBP Update

0.84 support has broken and now holding around the current support level which is 0.833-0.835.. If it manage break further down and remain below this support level, it can drop back to 0.82 level. But, if managed to hold then it need to break the 0.838-0.84 resistance in order go up further..

UK and Euro Reports

UK just released its Gfk Consumer Confidence (Nov) which shown slightly better than expected result.

Next reports for today (GMT Time) will be:
05:00 Japan - Annualized Housing Starts (Oct), Construction Orders (Oct), Housing Starts (Oct)
10:00 Europe - Consumer Price Index (Nov), Unemployment Rate (Oct)
11:00 UK - CB Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (Nov)
12:30 Canada - Industrial Product Price (Oct)
13:30 Canada - Current Account (Oct)

We can expect higher volatility today for JPY, EUR and CAD Currency.

Japan Reports

Japan just released some important reports at 27 Nov 2008, 23:30 and 23:50 GMT time. More volatility expected for JPY currency.

EUR/GBP - 27 Nov 2008

This pair was dropping to 0.836 yesterday and directly rebound back to 0.846 in a short time. Currently, it is stabilizing at 0.839-0.84 which is current support. Next support will be at 0.835 and resistance will be at 0.846 and 0.85.

EUR/GBP update

Just another 0.0005 point and it would reach my 0.849 target, but it only managed to go up to 0.8485 before dropping to current position 0.836-0.837 range which is current support level.

Euro and UK

Germany Import Price Index is below expectation, while UK Gross Domestic Product is as expected.

EUR/GBP managed to hold strongly above 0.843 after many times drop a while below that. If it can keep holding above this level steadily, it can easily break 0.853 resistance in few days.

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP unable to break and stay above the 0.854 resistance level, and it pulled back to 0.84 after went up t o 0.856-0.857 range. This is might be another good opportunity to long this currency pair again. I have opened long position at 0.844 which is current support level and queued to close it at 0.849.

Cut loss if it break below 0.84..

26 November 2008 Reports

Today and tomorrow, we can expect high volatility for USD as there will be a lot of major reports come out, especially tomorrow. This might be the time for USD to rebound back against JPY, as well as it might be the time for US market start recovering if the reports to be released are good or better than expectations.

Important releases for tomorrow (GMT Time):
07:00 - Germany Import Price Index (Oct)
08:00 - BoJ Governor Speech (Oct)
09:30 - UK GDP (3Q)
11:00 - US MBA Mortgage Applications
Germany Consumer Price Index (Nov)
13:30 - US Continuing Jobless Claims, Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (Oct), Durable Goods Orders (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income (Nov), Personal Spending (Oct)
14:45 - Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Nov)
14:55 - Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Nov)
15:00 - New Home Sales (Oct)
15:35 - EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

USD update

There will be US Treasury Secretary Paulson Speech at 15:00 GMT Time. Volatility for USD and major currencies expected.

25 November 2008 Reports

Today important report (GMT):
Germany 07:00 - Gross Domestic Product (3Q)
Germany 07:10 - Gfk Comsumer Confidence Survey (Dec)

UK 09:30 Total Business Investment QoQ (4Q)
UK 09:30 Total Business Investment YoY (3Q)

US 13:30 - Gross Domestic Purchase Price Index (3Q) and GDP Product Annualized (3Q)
US 13:30 - Personal Consumption Expenditure QoQ (3Q)
US 15:00 - Consumer Confidence (Nov)
US 15:00 - Housing Price Index MoM (Sep)

EUR/GBP Resistance

EUR/GBP pair managed to reach its resistance at 0.853 level. If it managed to break it, next resistance will be at 0.8565-0.858 range, and final resistance will be at 0.863. Its possible that this pair will reach the final resistance level again..

US and UK Economic Events

1. US will release its Existing Home Sales (MoM) for October at 15:00 GMT time
2. UK will release Pre-Budget Report at 15:30 GMT time
3. US will be having Barrack Obama Speech at 17:00 GMT time -> Can expect high volatility for most of major currency during this period..

UK Gordown Brown's Speech

Take note that, there will be Gordon Brown's Speech at 10:00 (GMT Time). This might give some volatility to GBP currency movement.

EUR Current Account for September and Germany IFO - Business Climate and Expectations for November is below than forecasted and previous release.

European News - 24 November 2008

There will be European Current Account Report (Sep) and Germany IFO Business Climate and Expectations (Sep) to be released on 24 November 2008 at 09:00 (GMT). After that, Europe will release Industrial New Orders (Sep) at 10:00 (GMT). These reports might affect EUR currency with medium volatility.

A high reading for those reports will be good for EUR (bullish), while a low reading will be negative for EUR (bearish).

EUR/GBP update

EUR/GBP still in bullish position that it managed to goes up to 0.85 which is the current resistance after dropped to 0.837-0.838 range.. If it is able to break 0.85, the next resistance will be 0.853-0.854 range.. Support level is 0.844-0.845 range..

HIGHLIGHTS-ECB's Trichet-will take all data into account in Dec

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber, UAE Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi, and Brazilian central bank governor Henrique Meirelles all spoke at the event. The topics they discussed are Interest Rates, Financial Crisis, Money Market and Monetary Policy. For more details, you can see the link below.

source: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=99131e8a-7165-47d6-8444-b669d5a7a00a

BoJ kept its key policy rate unchanged

BoJ decided to kept its key policy rate remain at 0.30 percent as they feel that cutting interest rates near zero may not help.

There will be ECB Trichet's Speech at 13:00 GMT Time. Investors/traders can expect some volatility for EUR currency during this period.

BoJ interest rate decision

Today, BoJ interest rate decision and BoJ Press Conference will be the one affecting the most for the finance market. The decision might turn around the market direction, because current high JPY Currency is one of the major factor that cause most the stock market dropping further.

Last night, Dow Jones drop to the new low 7552.29 (drop 444.99 points or -5.28%) and Nasdaq 1316.12 (drop 70.3 points or -5.07%) which is the lowest points since March 12, 2003. Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index closed at 752.44 (drop 54.14 or -6.7%) which is the lowest point since April 14, 1997..

EUR/GBP turning direction

The 2 hours chart of EUR/GBP showing a bullish sign that it managed to break up the 0.844-0.845 resistance.. If it managed to break above 0.848 and staying above there and you are in short position, you might considering to set a tight stop loss.. The resistance will be around 0.853, while the first support will be around 0.843-0.844..

Current price: 0.8468

UK Retail Sales (Oct)

UK Retail Sales for October are better than estimated and previous percentage. This result might cause EUR/GBP to drop further to the stronger support level which is around 0.82..

EUR/GBP was dropping to support level around 0.834-0.835 before it rebounding to 0.843-0.844 which is the current position. Let's see how will be the movement trend of this currency pair..

EUR/GBP next target

EUR/GBP 0.837 support level broken.. Currently, it is moving around the next support which is around 0.834-0.835 range. If this level is broken, the next target will be around 0.824 and finally 0.82-0.821 level which will be the much better support level.. If it can reach this level, it might be a good time to make long position..

GBP and USD 19 and 20 November 2008

EUR/GBP went up from 0.841 to 0.844 before dropping to around 0.837 during the time BoE Minutes will be released. So far, no major movement yet for this currency pair.

Later on there will be FOMC minutes at 19:00 GMT time, expected some volatility for major currencies during this time..

The next important news will be on 20 November 2008 at 9:30 GMT time (UK Retail Sales for October) which will affect GBP movement. As for USD, some factors that might affect the movement are at 13:30 GMT time (US Jobless Claims Report), at 15:00 GMT time (Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for November) and finally at 16:00 GMT time, there will be Treasury Secretary Paulson speech.

Expected some volatility movement for GBP and USD tomorrow.

Bank of England Minutes Today 09:30 (GMT)

Please take note that there will be Bank of England (BoE) Minutes on 19 November 2008 09:30 GMT time. This BoE meetings are published 2 weeks after the interest rate decision. Traders/Investors can expect higher volatility for GBP around this time as the meeting will give outlook for the current economy situation.

IF BoE feels the GBP inflation rate is high then BoE might increase the interest rate which is positive for GBP. But, if GBP inflation rate is low then BoE might reduce the interest rate further to improve the current economy condition in England which is negative for GBP.

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EUR/GBP and USD update

EUR/GBP is moving around 0.840 - 0.844 range after dropping as low as 0.836.. Fed's Bernanke will give some testifies on 14:30 GMT Time. After that ECB Trichet's Speech will be on 18:30 GMT Time. We can expect some volatility for USD and EUR during the speech.

As for EUR/GBP entry position, current position is hanging in the middle between long and short. If you prefer to be safe, wait it drop further till below 0.83, or around 0.82 - 0.822 should be safe enough. As for current price which is 0.842 is still risky, since there will be important speech later on.

It's better to keep observe the movement and make decisison when you feel confirm about it. My advise is wait a while more if you would like to open long position..

United Kingdom Economic Calendar

Tomorrow there will be another volatility for GBP as there will be 2 important reports released on 9:30 (GMT Time) which are:
- Consumer Price Index (Oct)
- Retail Price Index (Oct)

Based on the pattern today, if it keep dropping, tomorrow might be the good time to enter.. If it managed pulled back to as low as 0.820-0.822 to fill up the gap, then it will be the best price to enter.. Alternatively, if it can hold strongly at 0.835-0.839, it might be not so bad entry price for long position, just that the risk is higher..

Observe the movement and pattern of this pair and decide which price is better to enter..

EUR/GBP 0.852-0.853 support broken

EUR/GBP 0.852-0.853 support range broken and dropping to as low as 0.848-0.849 range after this pair goes up as high as 0.856-0.857 range. Further downside of this currency pair is expected. Next strong support should be around 0.835 - 0.839 range.

Current EUR/GBP: 0.8497

JPY increase against other currency

Major currency pairs opened gap down and dropping against JPY. Current EUR/JPY: 120.54 (-244 points compare with friday closing value), while USD/JPY: 96.17 (-81 points) .

EUR/GBP 17 Nov 2008

EUR/GBP opened gap down and drop to 0.852 - 0.853 range which is the first critical support for this pair. If this pair break down further below this range, it might drop to 0.846 - 0.847, then with next support at 0.841 - 0.842 and 0.835 - 0.839 range which is stronger support at this level..

Current EUR/GBP: 0.854

Forex Volatility expected during monday opening

Take note that there will be G20 Meeting on 15 and 16 November 2008. The discussion and result of the meeting will affect forex rate and cause a very high volatility during opening on monday.

EUR Surges against the USD while JPY Plummets on Increased Risk Taking

A sharp rise in equity markets yesterday fueled risk taking, boosting riskier currency pairs. Poor economic data from the U.S. also helped to send the Dollar tumbling against the EUR and spiking against the JPY.

Economic Story:
1. USD - Dollar Tumbles versus the EUR
2. EUR - EUR Make Big Gains on Dollar, GBP
3. JPY - JPY Falls on Greater Risk Taking
4. OIL - Crude Rises on Equity Gains

Source: http://www.forexyard.com/en/market-analysis/eur_surges_against_the_usd_while_jpy_plummets_on_increased_risk_taking-2008-11-14

U.S. Retail Sales Today At 13:30 GMT

Be Prepared! U.S. Retail Sales Today At 13:30 GMT
Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Retail Sales, please read below.

What is the U.S. Retail Sales Indicator?
U.S. Retail Sales is a leading economic indicator used to measure the percentage change in the total value of sales at the retail level during the previous month. It is a leading indicator of economic health because the report reflects a wide variety of consumer spending, such as restaurants, consumer goods, and autos. Consumer sentiment can also be derived from this survey in order to gauge the outlook on the U.S. economy. This report is the earliest indicator of consumer spending released by the U.S. Census Bureau. An additional report released at the same time is Core Retail Sales which does not include sales of automobiles. When used together, the reports paint a picture of the state of the U.S. Consumer. This survey predominantly helps to analyze market trends and to determine the direction of the U.S. economy.

If the Survey Comes Inline with Market Forecasts
Expectations for this month are suggesting that the U.S. Retail Sales will fall by -2.0% in September, reflecting a -0.8% decrease from October. Such a result could demonstrate a shrinking economy and a lower consumer sentiment in the U.S. The U.S. economy is currently facing a financial crisis, triggered by a downturn in the housing market, a lack of credit, and reluctance by banks to lend. This may adversely affect the report because the sale of new automobiles account for roughly 20% of the report's total. U.S. auto sales are predominantly financed by bank loans. The recent drop in equity markets may add to a negative outlook for the American consumer which could reduce their spending on non-essential items. A decreasing figure will most likely be interpreted by investors that the American people are reducing their purchases in a time of financial uncertainty. Such a scenario will probably move the greenback and the EUR/USD might rise to test the 1.2900 level.

If the Survey Will Surprise With Bullishness
When the actual figure is higher than forecasted, traders are likely to see the USD appreciate against its currency pairs and crosses. The volatile two trading weeks we have just experienced concluded with significant strength for the USD. Investors are now following the opportunity to make profits out of their open positions on the USD, and a better-than-expected figure on the Retail Sales survey, such as -0.4% instead of -2.0% will possibly provide them that exact opportunity. Such a figure is good because it will ease some concerns regarding a contracting U.S. economy. If U.S. citizens are increasing their purchases, this may reduce pressure in a tough market and push the USD higher. With the recent decrease in gas prices, consumers may see an increase in disposable income, reflecting in additional purchases. In this turn of events, the EUR/USD might correct itself down to reach as low as the 1.2000 level.

Source: Forexyard

Euro-Zone Economy in Recession

The euro-zone economy is in recession for the first time since 1999.

The European Union statistics agency Eurostat Friday said the euro-zone's gross domestic product in third quarter was 0.2% lower than in the second quarter, and 0.7% higher than in the third quarter of 2007. That performance was weaker than expected.

Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=e3217820-ea7c-415e-b879-3c08a8dd5bfa

EUR/GBP pulling back

This pair pulled back to as low as 0.853.. Furthermore dropping is expected in short term, before it bounce back to a new high again..

Current EUR/GBP: 0.855

EUR/GBP update

0.841 resistance was broken, this pair moving advance as high as 0.865-0.866 range.. Eventhough, upside rooms are still available, but its quite risky to make any long position at this moment since this pair hasn't make any sharp pull back yet since it break the 0.82 resistance 2 days ago..

Due to its volatility, some brokerage might increase the margin requirements for this pair.

European Update

The European Central Bank's president Jean Claude Trichet will give a press conference about how the ECB observation of current European Economy at 18:30 (GMT time). Expected some volatility of Euro currency during this time.

EUR/GBP update

EUR/GBP moving between 0.834 - 0.839 range after the big movement yesterday. There is high chance for this pair to moving up further.. But, it will be wise to wait for the pull back before make long position on this.

For those on long position, be careful if 0.8330 and 0.8345 current support is broken down. It might falling sharp enough and also will be another good chance to get prepared to make a new long position.. For those on short position, be careful if it cross above 0.8410..

Current EUR/GBP pair: 0.837

Some major movement might happen on: (GMT Time)
13 Nov 2008
* 18:30 - ECB Trichet's Speech

14 Nov 2008
* 07:00 - Germany Consumer Price Index (Oct)
* 08:00 - ECB Trichet's Speech
* 10:00 - Europe Consumer Price Index (Oct)
* 10:00 - Europe Gross Domestic Product (Oct)

Bank of England signals UK Rate cuts

Bank of England signals UK Rate cuts, GBP drop to the new lows against USD and EUR.
Current EUR/GBP: 0.8385, GBP/USD: 1.4925

EUR/GBP break the 0.82 and 0.823 resistance

EUR/GBP break the 0.82 and 0.823 resistance and moving forward to 0.837 within 6 hours..

The Bank of England sees inflation declining to 1% in two years

Wed, Nov 12 2008, 11:04 GMT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – The Bank of England notes the market deterioration of domestic and global activity in the last months and the instability in financial markets, adverting the possibility of UK economy to enter into recession in the second half of 2008, while they foresee inflation falling at a fast pace in the coming months.

Gross domestic product has been estimated to decline about 0.5% in the third quarter of the year, and grow at a 0.7% year on year pace, as business surveys and reports from Bank’s regional agents weakened considerably, furthermore, the Bank expects economy to tumble further, as tighter credit conditions have squeezed consumer spending. Residential investment has continued declining, and business investment has weakened considerably.

UK GDP, as a result, will not start to grow till the last half of 2009, according to the Bank’s estimations, to recover strongly during 2020, to reach levels above the historical average in 2011.

Bank Rates, in this context, are expected to ease somewhat further to levels around 2.75% in the first half of 2009 to pick up to levels around 4% again in 2010.

Inflation has dropped from 5.2% in September, due to lower commodity prices, the Bank expects Consumer prices to decline to a 1% year on year level in two years time, despite the unusual uncertainty surrounding assessments over inflation and economic growth.

Source: FXstreet.com

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