EUR/GBP

Support level was broken. This pair is free fall to 0.825, and currently holding around 0.826-0.827 range. Let's see whether it will drop further..

EUR/GBP Update

0.84 support has broken and now holding around the current support level which is 0.833-0.835.. If it manage break further down and remain below this support level, it can drop back to 0.82 level. But, if managed to hold then it need to break the 0.838-0.84 resistance in order go up further..

UK and Euro Reports

UK just released its Gfk Consumer Confidence (Nov) which shown slightly better than expected result.

Next reports for today (GMT Time) will be:
05:00 Japan - Annualized Housing Starts (Oct), Construction Orders (Oct), Housing Starts (Oct)
10:00 Europe - Consumer Price Index (Nov), Unemployment Rate (Oct)
11:00 UK - CB Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (Nov)
12:30 Canada - Industrial Product Price (Oct)
13:30 Canada - Current Account (Oct)

We can expect higher volatility today for JPY, EUR and CAD Currency.

Japan Reports

Japan just released some important reports at 27 Nov 2008, 23:30 and 23:50 GMT time. More volatility expected for JPY currency.

EUR/GBP - 27 Nov 2008

This pair was dropping to 0.836 yesterday and directly rebound back to 0.846 in a short time. Currently, it is stabilizing at 0.839-0.84 which is current support. Next support will be at 0.835 and resistance will be at 0.846 and 0.85.

EUR/GBP update

Just another 0.0005 point and it would reach my 0.849 target, but it only managed to go up to 0.8485 before dropping to current position 0.836-0.837 range which is current support level.

Euro and UK

Germany Import Price Index is below expectation, while UK Gross Domestic Product is as expected.

EUR/GBP managed to hold strongly above 0.843 after many times drop a while below that. If it can keep holding above this level steadily, it can easily break 0.853 resistance in few days.

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP unable to break and stay above the 0.854 resistance level, and it pulled back to 0.84 after went up t o 0.856-0.857 range. This is might be another good opportunity to long this currency pair again. I have opened long position at 0.844 which is current support level and queued to close it at 0.849.

Cut loss if it break below 0.84..

26 November 2008 Reports

Today and tomorrow, we can expect high volatility for USD as there will be a lot of major reports come out, especially tomorrow. This might be the time for USD to rebound back against JPY, as well as it might be the time for US market start recovering if the reports to be released are good or better than expectations.

Important releases for tomorrow (GMT Time):
07:00 - Germany Import Price Index (Oct)
08:00 - BoJ Governor Speech (Oct)
09:30 - UK GDP (3Q)
11:00 - US MBA Mortgage Applications
Germany Consumer Price Index (Nov)
13:30 - US Continuing Jobless Claims, Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (Oct), Durable Goods Orders (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income (Nov), Personal Spending (Oct)
14:45 - Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Nov)
14:55 - Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Nov)
15:00 - New Home Sales (Oct)
15:35 - EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

USD update

There will be US Treasury Secretary Paulson Speech at 15:00 GMT Time. Volatility for USD and major currencies expected.

25 November 2008 Reports

Today important report (GMT):
Germany 07:00 - Gross Domestic Product (3Q)
Germany 07:10 - Gfk Comsumer Confidence Survey (Dec)

UK 09:30 Total Business Investment QoQ (4Q)
UK 09:30 Total Business Investment YoY (3Q)

US 13:30 - Gross Domestic Purchase Price Index (3Q) and GDP Product Annualized (3Q)
US 13:30 - Personal Consumption Expenditure QoQ (3Q)
US 15:00 - Consumer Confidence (Nov)
US 15:00 - Housing Price Index MoM (Sep)

EUR/GBP Resistance

EUR/GBP pair managed to reach its resistance at 0.853 level. If it managed to break it, next resistance will be at 0.8565-0.858 range, and final resistance will be at 0.863. Its possible that this pair will reach the final resistance level again..

US and UK Economic Events

1. US will release its Existing Home Sales (MoM) for October at 15:00 GMT time
2. UK will release Pre-Budget Report at 15:30 GMT time
3. US will be having Barrack Obama Speech at 17:00 GMT time -> Can expect high volatility for most of major currency during this period..

UK Gordown Brown's Speech

Take note that, there will be Gordon Brown's Speech at 10:00 (GMT Time). This might give some volatility to GBP currency movement.

EUR Current Account for September and Germany IFO - Business Climate and Expectations for November is below than forecasted and previous release.

European News - 24 November 2008

There will be European Current Account Report (Sep) and Germany IFO Business Climate and Expectations (Sep) to be released on 24 November 2008 at 09:00 (GMT). After that, Europe will release Industrial New Orders (Sep) at 10:00 (GMT). These reports might affect EUR currency with medium volatility.

A high reading for those reports will be good for EUR (bullish), while a low reading will be negative for EUR (bearish).

EUR/GBP update

EUR/GBP still in bullish position that it managed to goes up to 0.85 which is the current resistance after dropped to 0.837-0.838 range.. If it is able to break 0.85, the next resistance will be 0.853-0.854 range.. Support level is 0.844-0.845 range..

HIGHLIGHTS-ECB's Trichet-will take all data into account in Dec

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber, UAE Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi, and Brazilian central bank governor Henrique Meirelles all spoke at the event. The topics they discussed are Interest Rates, Financial Crisis, Money Market and Monetary Policy. For more details, you can see the link below.

source: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=99131e8a-7165-47d6-8444-b669d5a7a00a

BoJ kept its key policy rate unchanged

BoJ decided to kept its key policy rate remain at 0.30 percent as they feel that cutting interest rates near zero may not help.

There will be ECB Trichet's Speech at 13:00 GMT Time. Investors/traders can expect some volatility for EUR currency during this period.

BoJ interest rate decision

Today, BoJ interest rate decision and BoJ Press Conference will be the one affecting the most for the finance market. The decision might turn around the market direction, because current high JPY Currency is one of the major factor that cause most the stock market dropping further.

Last night, Dow Jones drop to the new low 7552.29 (drop 444.99 points or -5.28%) and Nasdaq 1316.12 (drop 70.3 points or -5.07%) which is the lowest points since March 12, 2003. Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index closed at 752.44 (drop 54.14 or -6.7%) which is the lowest point since April 14, 1997..

EUR/GBP turning direction

The 2 hours chart of EUR/GBP showing a bullish sign that it managed to break up the 0.844-0.845 resistance.. If it managed to break above 0.848 and staying above there and you are in short position, you might considering to set a tight stop loss.. The resistance will be around 0.853, while the first support will be around 0.843-0.844..

Current price: 0.8468

UK Retail Sales (Oct)

UK Retail Sales for October are better than estimated and previous percentage. This result might cause EUR/GBP to drop further to the stronger support level which is around 0.82..

EUR/GBP was dropping to support level around 0.834-0.835 before it rebounding to 0.843-0.844 which is the current position. Let's see how will be the movement trend of this currency pair..

EUR/GBP next target

EUR/GBP 0.837 support level broken.. Currently, it is moving around the next support which is around 0.834-0.835 range. If this level is broken, the next target will be around 0.824 and finally 0.82-0.821 level which will be the much better support level.. If it can reach this level, it might be a good time to make long position..

GBP and USD 19 and 20 November 2008

EUR/GBP went up from 0.841 to 0.844 before dropping to around 0.837 during the time BoE Minutes will be released. So far, no major movement yet for this currency pair.

Later on there will be FOMC minutes at 19:00 GMT time, expected some volatility for major currencies during this time..

The next important news will be on 20 November 2008 at 9:30 GMT time (UK Retail Sales for October) which will affect GBP movement. As for USD, some factors that might affect the movement are at 13:30 GMT time (US Jobless Claims Report), at 15:00 GMT time (Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for November) and finally at 16:00 GMT time, there will be Treasury Secretary Paulson speech.

Expected some volatility movement for GBP and USD tomorrow.

Bank of England Minutes Today 09:30 (GMT)

Please take note that there will be Bank of England (BoE) Minutes on 19 November 2008 09:30 GMT time. This BoE meetings are published 2 weeks after the interest rate decision. Traders/Investors can expect higher volatility for GBP around this time as the meeting will give outlook for the current economy situation.

IF BoE feels the GBP inflation rate is high then BoE might increase the interest rate which is positive for GBP. But, if GBP inflation rate is low then BoE might reduce the interest rate further to improve the current economy condition in England which is negative for GBP.

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EUR/GBP and USD update

EUR/GBP is moving around 0.840 - 0.844 range after dropping as low as 0.836.. Fed's Bernanke will give some testifies on 14:30 GMT Time. After that ECB Trichet's Speech will be on 18:30 GMT Time. We can expect some volatility for USD and EUR during the speech.

As for EUR/GBP entry position, current position is hanging in the middle between long and short. If you prefer to be safe, wait it drop further till below 0.83, or around 0.82 - 0.822 should be safe enough. As for current price which is 0.842 is still risky, since there will be important speech later on.

It's better to keep observe the movement and make decisison when you feel confirm about it. My advise is wait a while more if you would like to open long position..

United Kingdom Economic Calendar

Tomorrow there will be another volatility for GBP as there will be 2 important reports released on 9:30 (GMT Time) which are:
- Consumer Price Index (Oct)
- Retail Price Index (Oct)

Based on the pattern today, if it keep dropping, tomorrow might be the good time to enter.. If it managed pulled back to as low as 0.820-0.822 to fill up the gap, then it will be the best price to enter.. Alternatively, if it can hold strongly at 0.835-0.839, it might be not so bad entry price for long position, just that the risk is higher..

Observe the movement and pattern of this pair and decide which price is better to enter..

EUR/GBP 0.852-0.853 support broken

EUR/GBP 0.852-0.853 support range broken and dropping to as low as 0.848-0.849 range after this pair goes up as high as 0.856-0.857 range. Further downside of this currency pair is expected. Next strong support should be around 0.835 - 0.839 range.

Current EUR/GBP: 0.8497

JPY increase against other currency

Major currency pairs opened gap down and dropping against JPY. Current EUR/JPY: 120.54 (-244 points compare with friday closing value), while USD/JPY: 96.17 (-81 points) .

EUR/GBP 17 Nov 2008

EUR/GBP opened gap down and drop to 0.852 - 0.853 range which is the first critical support for this pair. If this pair break down further below this range, it might drop to 0.846 - 0.847, then with next support at 0.841 - 0.842 and 0.835 - 0.839 range which is stronger support at this level..

Current EUR/GBP: 0.854

Forex Volatility expected during monday opening

Take note that there will be G20 Meeting on 15 and 16 November 2008. The discussion and result of the meeting will affect forex rate and cause a very high volatility during opening on monday.

EUR Surges against the USD while JPY Plummets on Increased Risk Taking

A sharp rise in equity markets yesterday fueled risk taking, boosting riskier currency pairs. Poor economic data from the U.S. also helped to send the Dollar tumbling against the EUR and spiking against the JPY.

Economic Story:
1. USD - Dollar Tumbles versus the EUR
2. EUR - EUR Make Big Gains on Dollar, GBP
3. JPY - JPY Falls on Greater Risk Taking
4. OIL - Crude Rises on Equity Gains

Source: http://www.forexyard.com/en/market-analysis/eur_surges_against_the_usd_while_jpy_plummets_on_increased_risk_taking-2008-11-14

U.S. Retail Sales Today At 13:30 GMT

Be Prepared! U.S. Retail Sales Today At 13:30 GMT
Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Retail Sales, please read below.

What is the U.S. Retail Sales Indicator?
U.S. Retail Sales is a leading economic indicator used to measure the percentage change in the total value of sales at the retail level during the previous month. It is a leading indicator of economic health because the report reflects a wide variety of consumer spending, such as restaurants, consumer goods, and autos. Consumer sentiment can also be derived from this survey in order to gauge the outlook on the U.S. economy. This report is the earliest indicator of consumer spending released by the U.S. Census Bureau. An additional report released at the same time is Core Retail Sales which does not include sales of automobiles. When used together, the reports paint a picture of the state of the U.S. Consumer. This survey predominantly helps to analyze market trends and to determine the direction of the U.S. economy.

If the Survey Comes Inline with Market Forecasts
Expectations for this month are suggesting that the U.S. Retail Sales will fall by -2.0% in September, reflecting a -0.8% decrease from October. Such a result could demonstrate a shrinking economy and a lower consumer sentiment in the U.S. The U.S. economy is currently facing a financial crisis, triggered by a downturn in the housing market, a lack of credit, and reluctance by banks to lend. This may adversely affect the report because the sale of new automobiles account for roughly 20% of the report's total. U.S. auto sales are predominantly financed by bank loans. The recent drop in equity markets may add to a negative outlook for the American consumer which could reduce their spending on non-essential items. A decreasing figure will most likely be interpreted by investors that the American people are reducing their purchases in a time of financial uncertainty. Such a scenario will probably move the greenback and the EUR/USD might rise to test the 1.2900 level.

If the Survey Will Surprise With Bullishness
When the actual figure is higher than forecasted, traders are likely to see the USD appreciate against its currency pairs and crosses. The volatile two trading weeks we have just experienced concluded with significant strength for the USD. Investors are now following the opportunity to make profits out of their open positions on the USD, and a better-than-expected figure on the Retail Sales survey, such as -0.4% instead of -2.0% will possibly provide them that exact opportunity. Such a figure is good because it will ease some concerns regarding a contracting U.S. economy. If U.S. citizens are increasing their purchases, this may reduce pressure in a tough market and push the USD higher. With the recent decrease in gas prices, consumers may see an increase in disposable income, reflecting in additional purchases. In this turn of events, the EUR/USD might correct itself down to reach as low as the 1.2000 level.

Source: Forexyard

Euro-Zone Economy in Recession

The euro-zone economy is in recession for the first time since 1999.

The European Union statistics agency Eurostat Friday said the euro-zone's gross domestic product in third quarter was 0.2% lower than in the second quarter, and 0.7% higher than in the third quarter of 2007. That performance was weaker than expected.

Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=e3217820-ea7c-415e-b879-3c08a8dd5bfa

EUR/GBP pulling back

This pair pulled back to as low as 0.853.. Furthermore dropping is expected in short term, before it bounce back to a new high again..

Current EUR/GBP: 0.855

EUR/GBP update

0.841 resistance was broken, this pair moving advance as high as 0.865-0.866 range.. Eventhough, upside rooms are still available, but its quite risky to make any long position at this moment since this pair hasn't make any sharp pull back yet since it break the 0.82 resistance 2 days ago..

Due to its volatility, some brokerage might increase the margin requirements for this pair.

European Update

The European Central Bank's president Jean Claude Trichet will give a press conference about how the ECB observation of current European Economy at 18:30 (GMT time). Expected some volatility of Euro currency during this time.

EUR/GBP update

EUR/GBP moving between 0.834 - 0.839 range after the big movement yesterday. There is high chance for this pair to moving up further.. But, it will be wise to wait for the pull back before make long position on this.

For those on long position, be careful if 0.8330 and 0.8345 current support is broken down. It might falling sharp enough and also will be another good chance to get prepared to make a new long position.. For those on short position, be careful if it cross above 0.8410..

Current EUR/GBP pair: 0.837

Some major movement might happen on: (GMT Time)
13 Nov 2008
* 18:30 - ECB Trichet's Speech

14 Nov 2008
* 07:00 - Germany Consumer Price Index (Oct)
* 08:00 - ECB Trichet's Speech
* 10:00 - Europe Consumer Price Index (Oct)
* 10:00 - Europe Gross Domestic Product (Oct)

Bank of England signals UK Rate cuts

Bank of England signals UK Rate cuts, GBP drop to the new lows against USD and EUR.
Current EUR/GBP: 0.8385, GBP/USD: 1.4925

EUR/GBP break the 0.82 and 0.823 resistance

EUR/GBP break the 0.82 and 0.823 resistance and moving forward to 0.837 within 6 hours..

The Bank of England sees inflation declining to 1% in two years

Wed, Nov 12 2008, 11:04 GMT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – The Bank of England notes the market deterioration of domestic and global activity in the last months and the instability in financial markets, adverting the possibility of UK economy to enter into recession in the second half of 2008, while they foresee inflation falling at a fast pace in the coming months.

Gross domestic product has been estimated to decline about 0.5% in the third quarter of the year, and grow at a 0.7% year on year pace, as business surveys and reports from Bank’s regional agents weakened considerably, furthermore, the Bank expects economy to tumble further, as tighter credit conditions have squeezed consumer spending. Residential investment has continued declining, and business investment has weakened considerably.

UK GDP, as a result, will not start to grow till the last half of 2009, according to the Bank’s estimations, to recover strongly during 2020, to reach levels above the historical average in 2011.

Bank Rates, in this context, are expected to ease somewhat further to levels around 2.75% in the first half of 2009 to pick up to levels around 4% again in 2010.

Inflation has dropped from 5.2% in September, due to lower commodity prices, the Bank expects Consumer prices to decline to a 1% year on year level in two years time, despite the unusual uncertainty surrounding assessments over inflation and economic growth.

Source: FXstreet.com

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